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The Turn-Around

The electoral map is beginning to move in John McCain's direction, although we project that if the election were held today, it would likely end in a tie and be thrown into the House of Representatives.

Rasmussen now reports that their electoral college tracking has Barack Obama leading by just ten electoral votes. Based on that projection, all John McCain would need to do would be to carry Virginia and Nevada to be assured of victory. Gallup now reports that McCain has a five point lead over Obama nationally, and that means that the August turnaround which ended with the Republican National Convention is now complete.

These trends are eerily similar to 1988, when Michael Dukakis' lead collapsed after he held one for much of the late spring and through the summer. The lead, which was ten points at one point, gave way after both conventions were complete and Dukakis never recovered.

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