04.Mar.08, 07:30 EST Blog edited on: 04.Mar.08, 13:21 EST
Ah, Florida. We don't care if we get to the party. We're still gonna pick out a prom dress. And so the Florida Democrats proceeded to chose delegates this past weekend on the off-hand chance that the DNC will let them sit down at the party convention in August. Of course some of this is less about presidential politics than it is the statewide ambitions of the Dems to retake ground lost during the Jeb Bush era.
In Texas, the early voting numbers are in and thus far just show that Lone Star Democrats are out in history-making force. It's going to be a real bitch to figure out what happened when the polls close March 4th because of the state's squirrelly hybrid system, which awards delegates based on both primary and caucus calculations. For the low-down on this, check out The New Republic's primer. If that doesn't make you nuts, try Marc Ambinder's handicapping for the rest of the primary season.
While we're at it, let's try to make sense of the near astrological projections offered by the dozens of pollsters at play in the fields of men. Poll parser über alles Mark Blumenthal goes through the demographics behind several of the more prominent polls in Ohio and Texas. After you get through all the cleverness, he hits you with the bottom line, which is that nobody knows nothin' about nothin'.
The reason is that although each poll offers a reliable snapshot of how different types of people would vote, the Democratic race is so close and screwy and sample sizes are pretty small. Also, polls can't predict how many of each type will actually vote.
Thus, if one pollster talks to 20 black women over 50 and another nets only 10, even if they all say roughly the same thing, the relative weight of their opinions will differ within the total sample. So in one poll, Hillary Clinton might be ahead by four points and behind by two points in another.
My conclusion is that the only sane response to the overload of information that is essentially useless in real time (although probably wonderful in retrospect) is to ignore it.
Besides, there are funnier things to ponder, such as the video of John McCain calling himself a "conservative liberal Republican" and also being endorsed by a religious whack job in Texas. The whack job in question is Pastor John Hagee, whose videos decrying Catholicism as a "false religious system [that] is going to be totally devoured by the antichrist" are all over Youtube.
He runs a mega church in Texas and preaches about the end of days, when he's not calling the president of Iran the new Hitler, or blaming Hurricane Katrina on the gays. He's all over conservative media and shepherds a flock of some 17,000 lost souls.
Anywho, McCain accepted the endorsement, while offering a tepid non-endorsement of Hagee's views. I'd like to see a poll on his chances of not getting burned on this one.
Leave a Comment