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            1. The Super Bowl of Primaries

              04.Feb.08, 13:06 EST Blog edited on: 05.Feb.08, 14:09 EST

              If the Super Bowl is any indication, this is the Year of the Underdog. On Sunday, the NY Giants pulled off a helluva upset against the New England Patriots. They did it by making dramatic, uncharacteristic last-minute moves not even the most calculated observer could have predicted. Oddsmakers in Las Vegas, Brazilian supermodels, and People Magazine's "most beautiful" selectors were no doubt royally pissed. Will the same be true today, when another national sport holds its electoral playoffs?

              Will the audacious, big-eared kid from Kenya-Kansas-Hawaii-Chicago beat the odds against the meticulously-constructed political powerhouse with the coalition of women, Latinos, and older voters backing her? Will the Mormon CEO finally garner the rewards of his deep pockets, or see his conservative edge siphoned off by the evangelical funnyman, thus delivering a decisive victory to the curmudgeonly moderate hawk?

              It's all just too delicious to contemplate. Plus, this is happening on Fat Tuesday, an appropriate metaphor for an orgy of indulgence followed by a period of reflection and regret. For the trailing candidates, the time for a Hail Mary pass is now or never.

              Anyway, some interesting thoughts out here from the punditry. David Von Drehle of Time Magazine posits a winning strategy for Barack Obama in his courtship of the young. Rather than battling Hillary Clinton only on her well-cultivated turf, Obama has sought the support of the apple-cheeked new voter whose dreams have yet to be crushed. Or something like that.

              Von Drehle makes his "Barack the Vote" case with compelling numbers from early primary states like Iowa. "While enthusiastic Democrats of all ages produced a 90% increase in turnout for the first caucuses, the number of young voters was up half again as much: 135%. The kids preferred Obama over the next-closest competitor by more than 4 to 1. The youngest slice - the under-25 set, typically among the most elusive voters in all of politics - gave Obama a net gain of some 17,000 votes. He won by just under 20,000."

              Meanwhile, Slate cheeringly tells us that if we live in a proportional allocation state like California, our votes might not really matter. The reason? The contests are so hot no one candidate is likely to get a decisive majority in any one district, thus leading to a split award of delegates. So your Obama cancels out my Hillary, that sort of thing. Whatever. Still go vote.

              Pollster.com has a good rundown of how each candidate stacks up in polling of Super Tuesday states. It's worth a look if you're a stats person, but the upshot is that they're all close enough that no one really knows what the hell Wednesday morning is going to look like. Another way of looking at it is to see where the candidates think they need to spend their time. For this, Slate has a handy tracking map.

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