Fred Thompson’s contract for the rest of the presidential primary season has been canceled. We’re predicting, however, that he’ll be a guest star in future episodes of cable news punditry. I’m thinking he’d fit right in on The O’Reilly Factor somewhere between Dennis Miller and those segments where O’Reilly has a hot young woman talk about something prurient so he can ask creepy questions while salivating in her direction.

     “A loss for Thompson's campaign is a victory for conventional wisdom,” quipped Slate’s John Dickerson, summing up much of the blogosphere’s sentiment. “Much of it has been proved wrong this campaign season (McCain's doomed! Obama's doomed! Hillary's doomed!), but here is one piece of professional political thinking that withstood confrontation with reality: You must show an interest in running for the most powerful office in the world to gain that office.”

     But in very promising news for the continued prominence of Florida in political weirdness during presidential elections years, the hottest Congressional race in the history of the universe is about to explode in the ass-end of the state.

Lincoln Diaz-Balart, a South Florida Congressman for some 16 years, has been challenged by the always colorful former Hialeah mayor Raul Martinez. One has to live in Miami to truly appreciate how insane this race will become, but I urge a quick Googling exercise to pick up some flavor.

     The short version is that we’ll have a one-issue (Cuba libre!) patrician Republican Congressman who’s never had a serious challenger in two decades doing down and dirty battle with a populist Democratic street brawler once convicted of corruption charges, then reelected shortly before his conviction was overturned.

     Neither of the two Cuban-American titans will stop until his opponent is lying broken on the street. One quick example of the dirty tactics already is a fake campaign Website put up by Diaz-Balart loyalists that compares Martinez to Luca Brasi in The Godfather. Actually, The Godfather is a good template through which to view the mindset of both “families” in the developing shooting match.

     But beyond the sheer entertainment factor, this race will be important in presidential politics because it takes place in a highly visible, vote-rich territory where Republicans have tried to woo Cuban-American voters via the tired anti-Castro trope. It is so ritualized, it has become a catechism of presidential campaigning here.

     Much has changed in South Florida in the past few years. The one-issue battle cry is becoming less relevant, especially in a year when more people are worried about their economic well-being in this country. South Florida is one of the hardest hit areas in the nation in terms of the real estate bubble, the subprime mortgage mess, foreclosures, etc…

     Diaz-Balart perfectly represents the old guard: white Cubans of means who have preserved an idealized memory of love and loss in the nostalgic amber of local cuisine and civic rhetoric. Their singular point of view has outlasted their relevance only because they still form the hard core of reliable voters.

    Martinez represents something much more visceral and complicated. The Cubans that dominate in Hialeah are very different than their counterparts who have lived and prospered in Miami for two or three generations. Hialeah is a gateway city, a first stop off the raft or the go-fast boat during the last 10 to 15 years. 
     While less reliable voters, these folks are moved more by economic considerations, and they often don’t share the draconian position on the embargo favored by the hard right. So, it is possible that Martinez could construct a winning campaign by stitching together Democrats, closet Democrats, and disaffected Republicans.

     And, if he is able to stir the pot sufficiently, Martinez by himself could significantly alter the pitch of presidential candidates blowing through town. What the candidates will have to watch out for is not being ill-used by either side in a death match that could redefine the Florida campaign landscape for many years.