At first glance, the current credit crisis looks like nothing we've
seen before – a real estate crash combined with a derivatives tangle, a
record trade deficit and inflation. At its core, however, it's bank
failure brought on by deregulation and greed. In that, it's not unlike the Savings and Loan Crisis of the eighties.
Without the easy villains of the eighties insider trading scandals or the sex appeal of the Iran-Contra Affair – which at least had Fawn Hall to
spice things up – the S&L crisis has been consigned to the dustbin
of history books. But it was a big deal at the time, a taxpayer-funded
bailout of banks that failed because government didn't regulate them
and common sense didn't guide them. The late economist John Kenneth Galbraith called it "the largest and costliest venture in public misfeasance, malfeasance and larceny of all time." Until now, of course.
The
parallels are striking. In the eighties, legislation deregulated
S&Ls, just as later laws deregulated mortgage lenders. Then, as
now, financial institutions made outsize loans on real estate, which
many observers believed would keep rising in value, just as it had been
for the past few years. And then, as now, greed and the absence of
government oversight created an atmosphere in which fraud ran rampant.
The specifics are different – S&Ls contended with fluctuating
inflation, and few made subprime loans – but the basic situation is
strikingly similar.
So is the government's solution: a bailout. Indeed, many believe that the S&L bailout created what economists call a "moral hazard,"
a situation in which a person or institution can act irresponsibly
since it knows it won't face the full consequences of its action. In
this case, banks may have felt free to make risky moves since they
suspected the government would save them if they failed. In a perverse
way, this is just common sense, so bankers act accordingly. The upside
of taking a huge risk is untold riches. The downside is a bailout –
and, often, another job.
Yet the government doesn't seem to have learned its lesson. For years,
Bear Stearns profited from reckless investments. But when the company's
recklessness led to ruin, the Federal Reserve made sure it would be
bought by a competitor. So Bear's top executives and clerical workers
will probably lose their jobs – but the former have enough money to
retire and the latter don't make big decisions, anyway – while the
traders who gambled away the company's future will move to JP Morgan.
Since they made so much money speculating, it would be foolish for them
to change their ways.
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