March 4th, the Texas Democratic Primary - that's a big one around these parts.  Some of the talking heads are saying that if Obama wins Texas, it's all over, that he's in as the candidate the Democrats will field this time around.  So, what's it gonna be, Texas?  Once again, it's looking like what we decide really matters because the either Obama or Clinton look to have a great chance of winning the election.  Here's why.

1) Republicans have eight years of Bush to make excuses for, and that won't be easy.  Few presidents have gummed up the works in Washington like this intellectual zero has.  And my guess is that not even McCain can distance himself far enough from the Bush legacy of lameness to win the election.

2) McCain will continue the war in Iraq, even says he thinks it can be won.  All this means is that we've got another twit running for high office.  And as the campaign goes along, the war will likely be more and more of an issue.  Right now it's the number two issue, but if Obama or Clinton goes after it, they'll kick McCain's ass. 

3) The American vote is fickle, has a short memory, and there's still plenty of people out there dumb enough to vote for a Republican.  And Democrats seem to have a way of making elections close, even when they should run off with them.  Polls will show the election as close for awhile, maybe even up to a month before the election.  By then McCain will be looking as old as he is, Obama will be looking even better.

4) What Texans decide in the Democratic primary shouldn't be taken seriously as an indication of what this state will do in the general election come November.  Most of these rednecks are still Republicans, and my guess is any Democrat is going to have a tough time winning this state.  I'm guessing ever state from Arizona to Florida will go for McCain in the election.  Arizona is his home, and he'll win it.  And the others?  Well, pardner, they're fringe area lunatic right wingers - the old solid south, where conservativism is still seen as a virtue.  Count Texas with that bunch.

5) But . . . I predict that Obama will win Texas in the upcoming primnary, that he'll win the nomination, and that he will indeed whup McCain's ragged, worn out old ass.  And that's 'cause he'll likely sweep the big states - California, New York, Illinois (home), N.J., Pennsylvania, etc.  And he'll cut into the western states that have gone for Republicans in the past.  Obama is fresh, McCain is stale - that's really your choice.

And that's Polly on politics.

2/21/08